global warming yacht

How did the superyacht Bayesian sink? Experts say weather was just one factor

Divers searching for 6 missing people locate 5 bodies inside wrecked yacht's hull.

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A complicated search effort is underway deep beneath the surface of the Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Italy, where a superyacht sank early Monday during a fierce storm. 

Dive crews are attempting to enter the wreck of the Bayesian, a 56-metre long British-flagged luxury vessel, which is sitting in some 50 metres of water near the Sicilian fishing village of Porticello.

Fifteen of the 22 passengers and crew members on board were rescued. Divers searching for six people considered missing, including British businessman Mike Lynch, located five bodies inside the yacht's hull on Wednesday, and retrieved four of them from the water.

Searchers previously recovered the body of Recaldo Thomas, the ship's Canadian-Antiguan cook, in the water not far from where the Bayesian sank.  

• Diving team finds 5 bodies in Sicily yacht search
• Canadian dead, several others missing after superyacht capsizes off Sicilian coast

Questions have emerged about why a boat designed to handle severe weather sank so rapidly and whether or not some of its features could've been a factor in its demise. Maritime experts say investigations may, in time, reveal what led to the disaster.

"There needs to be an investigation as to why this happened, what went wrong and, you know, how to prevent it in the future cases," said Simon Boxall, an oceanographer and senior lecturer at the University of Southampton in England.

Canadian dead, others missing after superyacht sinks near Sicily

How did the bayesian sink so quickly.

Grainy footage from closed-circuit cameras on the shore broadcast on the website of the Giornale di Sicilia newspaper showed the Bayesian's majestic mast just before it disappeared. 

Karsten Borner, captain of the Sir Robert Baden Powell, which rescued the survivors who managed to get into a lifeboat, told The Associated Press he was close enough to be able to see the Bayesian as the storm came in.

"A moment later, she was gone," he said.

The survivors told the rescuers they went flat on the water "and were sunk in two minutes."

Boxall said vessels rely on being able to steer and navigate stormy seas, but the Bayesian was anchored and stationary, which likely made it more vulnerable to the storm and, potentially, a waterspout , or mini tornado that creates a whirlwind over the surface of the sea. 

He said it was also dark, meaning "you wouldn't see this sort of very unique event coming towards you."

CCTV footage shows yacht Bayesian as deadly storm strikes

"It's a freak of nature," Boxall said. "I think the fact that so many have survived, so far, is probably a miracle."

Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander and defence commentator, told CBC News the weather was likely not the only issue.

He says it's rare that a weather event like this takes down a boat. 

"There's nearly always a sequence [of events]," he said in an interview from Guildford, England, explaining that everything from safety protocols to the culture on board the vessel needs to be taken into account. 

Was the boat's design part of the problem?

The Bayesian was built in 2008 by Italian luxury yacht maker Perini Navi.

Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Milan Polytechnic, told Reuters that a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so rapidly by taking on a huge amount of water. 

He suggested that one or more portholes, windows or other openings may have been broken or smashed open by the waterspout, letting in water. There has also been media speculation that a major hatch might have been inadvertently left open.

Reports have also highlighted that the Bayesian featured a 72-metre mast — one of the tallest in the world. 

Ratti said an unusually tall mast is not by itself an element of vulnerability in a storm. 

A second expert, structural engineer Filippo Mattioni, was also skeptical about the suggestion the boat may have sunk due to a broken mast, which likely would have caused major damage smashing against the hull.

Fire department diver Marco Tilotta told the newspaper Il Messaggero that the wreck was "apparently intact," with "no gashes, no signs of impact." However, only half of the hull is visible to divers.

The Bayesian also had a retractable keel — the fin-like structure under the hull that helps stabilize boats and acts as a counterweight to the mast. 

Both Ratti and Mattioni wondered if the yacht had been anchored with the keel up, reducing the vessel's depth under water and making it less stable. Ratti said strong winds might have caused the boat to start oscillating wildly, "like a pendulum," putting exceptional strain on the mast.

Sharpe pointed out that a mast the size of the Bayesian's is designed for a massive sail, and without that sail raised and catching the wind, the gusts likely would've had a negligible impact on the aluminum pole.

• What we know about the capsized superyacht off the Sicilian coast

He instead suggested the anchor may have played a pivotal role.

"My kind of working assumption is that she was probably a bit further in at anchor, and it's very likely, in these sort of conditions, that her anchor dragged," he said. 

In such a situation, he said, a crew is better off steering toward the anchor to stabilize the vessel or raising the anchor and heading out to sea to ride out the storm.

"They might have got caught in that middle ground where they're not on a particularly good anchorage, but the anchor is now controlling the bow of the ship."

Sicily superyacht rescue: What divers are up against | About That

What caused the extreme weather.

Although Sharpe says the weather is unlikely the sole cause of the sinking, he notes the Mediterranean isn't the calm sea often pictured in travel brochures. 

"It can get pretty nasty," he said.

The type of storm that struck Monday is fuelled by warm water and the Mediterranean is warmer than ever, said Boxall, noting there's been about a three and a half degree increase in the 20-year average temperature.

'The ship behind us was gone,' says captain who rescued yacht passengers

Climatologists say global warming is making such violent and unexpected tempests more frequent. 

Luca Mercalli, president of Italy's meteorological society, said the sea surface temperature around Sicily in the days leading up to the shipwreck was about 30 C. 

"This creates an enormous source of energy that contributes to these storms," he told Reuters.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Senior Writer

Nick Logan is a senior writer with CBC based in Vancouver. He is a multi-platform reporter and producer, with a particular focus on international news. You can reach out to him at [email protected].

With files from The Associated Press and Reuters

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After Mike Lynch’s fatal yacht sinking, is Sicily still a yachting paradise?

The Bayesian was moored around 300 meters off the coast of Porticello when it was struck by freak weather conditions last Monday and sank. 

The boat had been carrying 22 people, 15 of whom were rescued and seven of whom died—including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch.

It was considered technologically advanced and had been restored four years ago. It is still unclear exactly how the yacht sank, but marine accident investigation teams have assessed the sunken vessel and have been reporting their findings. 

Sicily has long been known as a sailing paradise with azure waters, underwater caves, warm, dry summers and relatively calm conditions. 

But thanks to climate change, could more erratic weather patterns threaten the future of Sicily as a sailing destination?

The Mediterranean is warming

Initial hypotheses suggest a downburst played a role in capsizing the Bayesian. 

Climate scientists are linking the freak weather event in Sicily to climate change and the warming Mediterranean sea.

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, these are “powerful winds that descend from a thunderstorm and spread out quickly once they hit the ground.”

Climate scientists are linking the freak weather event in Sicily to climate change and the warming Mediterranean sea. Waters have reached 30C, up three degrees from its average temperature, following two months of brutal heatwaves. 

Warming waters have also contributed to more frequent episodes of exceptional weather.

“Occurrences of tornadoes or Mediterranean hurricanes have been increasing in frequency over the last 10 to 15 years,” Roberto Danavaro, a marine biologist at the University of Ancona, told the Guardian . 

“And based on the high temperatures, we are likely to see more in September and October. The heat of this summer will not bring anything good.” 

However, the captain of the Bayesian James Cutfield is also under investigation for possible manslaughter and culpable shipwreck.

“We didn’t see it coming.” Captain of the Bayesian, James Cutfield

The 51-year-old New Zealand national has been questioned by magistrates and will undergo further questioning this week, Italian daily La Repubblica reports. 

Under Italian law, being placed under investigation doesn’t imply any guilt and doesn’t necessarily result in criminal charges.

News site ANSA also reports that other members of the crew are also likely to be investigated as prosecutors consider whether the sinking was caused by negligence or errors.

Cutfield told Italian press that the storm had taken them by surprise: “We didn’t see it coming.”

A crew member was on duty on the bridge during the night and was in possession of equipment to receive weather warnings. But images show that the rocket to signal an emergency was launched half an hour after the yacht began to sink.

“The crew should have checked that everything was closed.” Architect of the Bayesian, Franco Romani

The architect of the Bayesian, Franco Romani, told Italian newspaper La Stampa that the yacht was designed to withstand “all weather conditions.”

He believes the sinking was due to a side hatch being left open, which would have allowed water to enter below deck as the boat began to list.  “The crew should have checked that everything was closed,” he added. 

Marine investigation teams have confirmed that the vessel remains intact underwater and the mast was not broken. 

Is sailing under threat in Sicily? 

The downburst appears to have hit a restricted area—with neighboring boats remaining unscathed—and formed very rapidly, meaning the crew had little time to prepare. 

“As with many Mediterranean destinations, Sicily is subject to seasonal winds, including the Mistral (northwestern wind) and the Sirocco (southeastern wind), which can cause rapid changes in weather conditions,” says Raphael Sauleau, CEO of international yachting company IYC .

Eva de Wilde, who runs the yachting holiday company EcoSailors with her partner Pietro Paolo Vital, notes that end-of-season downbursts are getting more frequent as the sea warms. 

“Very often the Mediterranean is seen as a calm pool but you always need to keep an eye on the weather forecast,” she says.  

Yachting experts also say there is plenty you can do to improve safety and preparedness when sailing.

James Ballard, who captained superyachts for 25 years and is now CEO of House of Assets, says that anchorages are generally quite safe in Sicily but again, the wind is something to be aware of.

“If you are on the north coast [where the Bayesian was moored] for example you have a long way to get around to cover on the east side including going through the Messina strait,” Ballard says.

“Sailing always comes with risk so you have to be fully prepared, have researched where you are going and safe ports of call and that you have adequate safety equipment on board.” James Ballard, CEO of House of Assets.

His advice is to put out more anchor chains than you might normally when mooring. 

“This means if the wind does pick up and you don’t have time to start the engines you have enough chain to hold the boat.” He also says it is essential to have someone on watch in the evenings. 

“Sailing always comes with risk so you have to be fully prepared, have researched where you are going and safe ports of call and that you have adequate safety equipment on board,” he adds.

Both Sauleau and de Wilde emphasize that incidents like the sinking of the Bayesian in this region are not the norm. 

“The sea, by its nature, can be unpredictable, and it’s crucial to adhere to all safety protocols, even under seemingly serene conditions,” Sauleau says. “But Sicily has long been a favored sailing destination with a history of few reported incidents.”

De Wilde says the extreme conditions that hit the Bayesian should not put people off sailing in the area. 

“What happened to the Bayesian is something really uncommon,” she says. “When they explain exactly what happened we will all be able to learn from their experience and be even more prepared for an event like this.

“Sailing around Sicily you will discover this amazing region in a special and different way. Only a sailboat can offer you this particular experience,” she adds.  

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Sicily Yacht Sinking:

Tornado-Like Spouts Are ‘More Likely’ as the Mediterranean Warms

Climate experts say warming seas are creating perfect conditions for waterspouts similar to the one that is believed to have hit a luxury yacht in the Mediterranean this week.  

People watch a waterspout form over the Mediterranean Sea on Jan. 7.

The type of weather phenomenon that may have led billionaire Mike Lynch’s yacht to sink in the Mediterranean this week is now more likely to happen as global warming has raised sea temperatures, according to climate experts.

The tech tycoon’s luxury sailboat, the Bayesian, was anchored off the Sicilian coast early on Monday when a swirling mass of wind and water — known as a waterspout — rocked the vessel amid stormy conditions. It is still being investigated why the 56 meter (184 feet) long ship, worth an estimated £30 million ($39 million), quickly submerged despite being built to withstand hurricanes.

After Yacht Sinks, Experts Say Mediterranean Growing More Dangerous

Rescue personnel work in the area where a luxury yacht sank, off the coast of Porticello, near the Sicilian city of Palermo, Italy, August 20, 2024. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane

By Antonella Cinelli and Gavin Jones

ROME (Reuters) - The shipwreck of a luxury yacht moored off the coast of Sicily is the latest sign that the Mediterranean is becoming a more dangerous sea to sail in, climate experts and skippers say.

One man died and six people are still missing, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, after the Bayesian, a 56-metre-long (184-ft) sailboat, was hit by a ferocious storm on Monday, sinking in a matter of minutes.

Climatologists say global warming is making such violent and unexpected tempests more frequent in a sea used as a summer playground for millions of tourists, including a wealthy few sailing its waters on superyachts.

Luca Mercalli, president of Italy's meteorological society, said the sea surface temperature around Sicily in the days leading up to the shipwreck was about 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), almost three degrees more than normal.

"This creates an enormous source of energy that contributes to these storms," he told Reuters.

The changes in "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea), as the ancient Romans called the Mediterranean, are also being noticed by experienced skippers such as Massimo Aramu, who runs the Akua sailing school on the coast near the Italian capital.

Currently sailing around Greece, Aramu said he did not like navigating Italy's Tyrrhenian coast around Sicily or the Spanish Balearic islands because there are "often critical situations with little warning".

Last week, a storm similar to the one that sank the Bayesian hit the Balearic archipelago, which includes the islands of Ibiza and Mallorca, leaving several yachts washed up ashore.

Giuliano Gallo, a former skipper who crossed the Atlantic and has written several books on sailing, said the Mediterranean was becoming more like the Caribbean, which has areas that many boats steer clear of at certain times of the year.

"But things are less predictable in the Mediterranean," he said.

Another sign of the more erratic weather in the Mediterranean was seen a year ago when thousands of people were killed in Libya by flash floods triggered by a so-called medicane - a supercharged Mediterranean storm fuelled by warmer seas.

Karsten Borner, the captain of a boat that was moored alongside the Bayesian but escaped harm, said Monday's storm had been "very violent, very intense, a lot of water and I think a turning system like a tornado".

He also blamed more frequent episodes of intense heat during the summer months for playing a role in causing such storms.

"The water is ... way too hot for the Mediterranean and this causes for sure heavy storms, like we had one week ago on the Balearics, like we had two years ago in Corsica and so on," he said.

(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones and Giselda Vagnoni; Writing by Gavin Jones; Editing by Crispian Balmer and Helen Popper)

Copyright 2024 Thomson Reuters .

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• ENVIRONMENT

A sea tornado just sank a yacht in the Mediterranean. We might be seeing more of them.

A deadly waterspout is strongly suspected of sinking a yacht off the coast of Italy. Scientists weigh in on whether they’ll worsen as the planet warms.

A superyacht carrying 22 people, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, sank off the coast of Palermo, Italy, in the early hours of August 19.  

The 183-foot Bayesian yacht is believed to have been hit by a waterspout —a tornado that forms over the ocean—and some experts are concerned that climate change could worsen these storms in the Mediterranean and other quickly warming waters.

Here’s what you need to know about waterspouts and whether hotter temperatures could cause more of them.

What is a waterspout?

A waterspout is a tornado that forms over water. “The tornado doesn't really care what surface it’s over,” says David Sills, executive director of the Northern Tornadoes Project at Western University in Ontario, Canada. “Whether it's a city or a forest or crops or water, the tornado is going to do its thing."  

These columns of rotating air “form where an air boundary exists, for example where warm and cold air collide,” says a spokesperson at the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) via email.

Changes in wind direction at different heights can cause a rotation.

“Imagine just above the ocean, the wind is blowing in one direction,” says Peter Inness , meteorologist at the University of Reading. When the wind higher up blows in another direction, “the air between those two levels of wind starts rotating around the horizontal axis.”

The warm air below rises and these “spinning parcels of air are also lifted and stretched in this process and can concentrate on the surface of the water creating a vortex,” says the BOM.

As the air is sucked upwards into the storm, the spinning intensifies like taking the plug out of the bath, says Innes: “the water going down the plughole rotates very intensely because it's being sucked downwards.”

It’s similar to a figure skater, adds Sills: “When they bring in their arms, and then they spin faster and faster.”  

How dangerous are waterspouts for boats?

Although the wind associated with waterspouts can reach 55 miles per hour, they typically move at under 25 miles per hour, are short-lived, and don’t cause much damage. “They usually only impact any single point for a few minutes,” says the BOM.

The Bayesian was moored overnight when it sank. Although people have attributed this to a waterspout, it’s not yet been confirmed.  

“It was dark and there are no images available,” says Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society , via email.

Boats are designed to right themselves when blown over by strong winds. “Those sailboats have a big, heavy keel so that when you start to go over, it pulls you back up,” says Sills.

But if water gets into the ship, it can lose buoyancy. “It's called a knockdown,” he says. “Time spent over like that means water and waves can get into open doors and it starts to take on water. Then you start to sink.”

The rapid change in wind strength and direction are also dangerous for boats, says Innes, “because it could result in the boat rocking backward and forward very violently.”

Will climate change cause more waterspouts?

One study has found more frequent waterspouts off the coast of Spain’s Balearic Islands when sea surface temperatures are higher, particularly between 73 and 78°F.

This year, “the Mediterranean is [over 5°F] above average,” says Mercalli, which is “an anomaly considered "extreme". These unusually warm waters could be partly due to climate change as well as year-on-year variability.

Some people are concerned that climate change could cause an increase in tornadoes on land and water.

“Global warming will increase all weather extreme events, because it injects more energy into the atmosphere,” says Mercalli.

But experts are wary of confirming a definite link with climate change. “Waterspouts are a very short-lived and local scale phenomena, and therefore difficult to attribute to impacts of climate change,” says the BOM.

The Mediterranean is warming more quickly than the rest of the ocean. Although climate change will make sea surface temperatures warmer, it’s unclear how it will affect the other conditions needed to create waterspouts.

Waterspouts need a temperature difference between air and sea. If the air is warming at the same rate as the bodies of water, an increase in waterspouts is unlikely, says Sills.  

Low pressure is also needed. “Even if the water is really warm, if you've got an area of high pressure over the Mediterranean, you won't get those thunderstorms,” says Inness. “You won't get waterspouts.”

Wind direction also comes into play. In this region, humid air from the north is more likely to cause storms than dry winds coming up from North Africa.    

Due to poor historic data, it’s not possible to confirm that waterspouts are increasing, says Mercalli, “but surely all heavy storms, including thunderstorms that generate strong winds, downbursts, heavy rains and hail are increasing worldwide and in Italy.”

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• CLIMATE CHANGE

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High-Tech Superyachts Sink And Catch Fire In The Mediterranean Every Summer Costing Billions… But Why?

Image: DMARGE

The Mediterranean is becoming increasingly dangerous to sail in, as evidenced by a series of distressing incidents, including the recent catastrophic sinking of the 184-foot yacht Bayesian off the Italian coast, which resulted in at least six fatalities, including tech mogul Mike Lynch. This tragedy has deeply shaken the yachting community and raised serious concerns about the safety of these majestic vessels in what was once considered a summer haven.

RELATED: A strange link between the sunk Bayesian yacht and the hit show  Below Deck

A Pattern of Perils

The incident with the Bayesian is just the latest in a series of misfortunes to have befallen the azure waters of the Medeittrenean. Only a week before, a 120-foot yacht, Wally Love , was driven aground near La Savina, Formentera, a Spanish island, in the wake of a fierce thunderstorm. And on August 10, the 154-foot Heesen yacht Atina succumbed to flames in the Bay of Olbia, Sardinia, eventually sinking after a massive blaze onboard took hold.

The pattern of misfortune extends beyond this summer.

In August 2023, the 90ft motor yacht Irmao caught fire and sunk off Formentera, while March this year saw the 87ft Ferretti motor yacht Gemini crash into the breakwater in Eceabat Marina, Çanakkale, as she negotiated the treacherous Dardanelles Strait.

The summer of 2022 proved equally dangerous for luxury vessels. August brought the 147-foot ISA motor yacht Aria SF to a fire that eventually saw her sink off the coast of Cap Martinet, Ibiza. July saw the 68-foot vessel smash into the rocks of Sardinia’s shore, with a British life taken and six others injured. A similar disaster befell the 120-foot Pesa, a newly launched yacht that caught fire in Valencia’s port, in April, just two years after its maiden voyage.

Even classic yachts are not immune to these maritime tragedies. In August 2022, it was the turn of Libra Y , 138 feet long and launched in 1977, which caught fire while berthed in a marina in Piraeus, Greece.

These recurring incidents in the summer months underline the Mediterranean as a hotbed for superyacht accidents, prompting the question: why are these luxury vessels facing such hazards?

Climate Change: A Possible Culprit?

Climate change has emerged as a prime suspect in these maritime incidents, with scientists pointing to freakish and increasingly dangerous weather patterns driven by warming waters in the Mediterranean.

Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society, describes the severity of this warming trend. He points out that water temperatures around Sicily, where the Bayesian sunk, have reached approximately 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), approximately 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above the seasonal average.

These temperatures are some of the highest recorded in ambient water on the planet and can be a factor leading to phenomena such as storms and waterspouts.

Research supports this theory. AS 2022 study examining 234 waterspouts in the Spanish Mediterranean over three decades found that they were more likely to occur when sea surface temperatures were above 23 degrees Celsius (73 degrees Fahrenheit).

Although the International Panel on Climate Change has not created any definite link between climate change and waterspouts, they have indicated that conditions for their formation are increasing in frequency.

Peter Inness, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, explained to CNN , “Global warming — and specifically warming of the Mediterranean Sea — is quite likely to lead to an intensification of a number of potentially dangerous weather systems in that region.”

Giuliano Gallo, a former skipper who has crossed the Atlantic and authored several books on sailing, said that the Mediterranean is becoming more like the Caribbean, which has areas that many boats avoid at certain times of the year.

Despite concerns about warmer waters in the Mediterranean during the summer months, the yachting community should not be deterred from exploring these enticing seas.

However, this indicates the necessity for increased vigilance and stringent safety measures, ensuring that all navigational and safety protocols—from GPS accuracy to comprehensive emergency procedures—are rigorously maintained.

With these precautions firmly in place, yacht enthusiasts can confidently enjoy the enchanting allure of Mediterranean voyages while safeguarding the well-being of passengers and crew.

How superyachts catch fire… accident or suspicious?

Many fires find their starting point in very ordinary sources that could happen to any ship: defective electrical systems, overloaded circuits, carelessly thrown-out cigarettes, defective fuel lines, and faulty gas-fired boilers. These major problem complexes sometimes prove to be the Achilles’ heel of these floating luxury palaces.

However, some cases point to more unusual circumstances. In August 2023, while docked in the Livorno shipyard in Italy, the 183-foot superyacht project FB261 caught fire. Some speculated this may have resulted from a lightning strike or that the electrical protection systems of the new build were not activated.

Repair and maintenance yards hold some of the most serious risks, as this cautionary tale from Chula Vista, USA, attests. A $17 million, 31-meter yacht went up in flames during what was meant to be routine repairs, with the suspected culprit being: A welding torch that sparked an inferno, sending two to the hospital for carbon monoxide inhalation.

While most incidents appear to be accidental, a notable exception occurred in March 2022. Ukrainian engineer Taras Ostapchuk was taken into custody after attempting to sink the 450-foot superyacht Lady Anastasia . His motive was a protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the yacht belonged to Alexander Mikheev, a Russian billionaire.

Some more yachts have sunk or caught fire in the past few years.

• Lady MM (August 2020) caught fire and sank approximately 50 nautical miles east of Sardinia, Italy.
• My Saga (August 2019): Sank off the coast of southern Italy after being battered by a storm.
• Angra (September 2015): Caught fire in Naples, Italy.
• Ocean 5 (July 2015): Burned and sank in Greece.

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Private planes, mansions and superyachts: What gives billionaires like Musk and Abramovich such a massive carbon footprint

Distinguished Professor and Provost's Professor of Anthropology; Director of the Open Anthropology Institute, Indiana University

Ph.D. Candidate in Anthropology, Indiana University

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• Bahasa Indonesia

Tesla’s Elon Musk and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos have been vying for the world’s richest person ranking all year after the former’s wealth soared a staggering US$160 billion in 2020, putting him briefly in the top spot .

Musk isn’t alone in seeing a significant increase in wealth during a year of pandemic, recession and death. Altogether, the world’s billionaires saw their wealth surge over $1.9 trillion in 2020, according to Forbes.

Those are astronomical numbers, and it’s hard to get one’s head around them without some context. As anthropologists who study energy and consumer culture, we wanted to examine how all that wealth translated into consumption and the resulting carbon footprint.

Walking in a billionaire’s shoes

We found that billionaires have carbon footprints that can be thousands of times higher than those of average Americans.

The wealthy own yachts, planes and multiple mansions, all of which contribute greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. For example, a superyacht with a permanent crew, helicopter pad, submarines and pools emits about 7,020 tons of CO2 a year, according to our calculations, making it by the far worst asset to own from an environmental standpoint. Transportation and real estate make up the lion’s share of most people’s carbon footprint, so we focused on calculating those categories for each billionaire.

To pick a sample of billionaires, we started with the 2020 Forbes List of 2,095 billionaires. A random or representatives sample of billionaire carbon footprints is impossible because most wealthy people shy away from publicity , so we had to focus on those whose consumption is public knowledge. This excluded most of the superrich in Asia and the Middle East .

We combed 82 databases of public records to document billionaires’ houses, vehicles, aircraft and yachts. After an exhaustive search, we started with 20 well-known billionaires whose possessions we were able to ascertain, while trying to include some diversity in gender and geography. We have submitted our paper for peer review but plan to continue adding to our list.

We then used a wide range of sources, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Carbon Footprint , to estimate the annual CO2 emissions of each house, aircraft, vehicle and yacht. In some cases we had to estimate the size of houses from satellite images or photos and the use of private aircraft and yachts by searching the popular press and drawing on other studies . Our results are based on analyzing typical use of each asset given its size and everything else we could learn.

We did not try to calculate each asset’s “ embodied carbon ” emissions – that is, how much CO2 is burned throughout the supply chain in making the product – or the emissions produced by their family, household employees or entourage. We also didn’t include the emissions of companies of which they own part or all, because that would have added another significant degree of complexity. For example, we didn’t calculate the emissions of Tesla or Amazon when calculating Musk’s or Bezos’ footprints.

In other words, these are all likely conservative estimates of how much they emit.

Your carbon footprint

To get a sense of perspective, let’s start with the carbon footprint of the average person.

Residents of the U.S., including billionaires, emitted about 15 tons of CO2 per person in 2018. The global average footprint is smaller, at just about 5 tons per person.

In contrast, the 20 people in our sample contributed an average of about 8,190 tons of CO2 in 2018. But some produced far more greenhouse gases than others.

The jet-setting billionaire

Roman Abramovich, who made most of his $19 billion fortune trading oil and gas, was the biggest polluter on our list. Outside of Russia, he is probably best known as the headline-grabbing owner of London’s Chelsea Football Club.

Abramovich cruises the Mediterranean in his superyacht, named the Eclipse , which at 162.5 meters bow to stern is the second-biggest in the world, rivaling some cruise ships. And he hops the globe on a custom-designed Boeing 767 , which boasts a 30-seat dining room. He takes shorter trips in his Gulfstream G650 jet, one of his two helicopters or the submarine on his yacht.

He maintains homes in many countries, including a mansion in London’s Kensington Park Gardens, a chateau in Cap D’Antibes in France and a 28-hectare estate in St. Barts that once belonged to David Rockefeller . In 2018, he left the U.K. and settled in Israel , where he became a dual citizen and bought a home in 2020 for $64.5 million.

We estimate that he was responsible for at least 33,859 metric tons of CO2 emissions in 2018 – more than two-thirds from his yacht, which is always ready to use at a moment’s notice year-round.

Massive mansions and private jets

Bill Gates, currently the world’s fourth-richest person with $124 billion, is a “modest” polluter – by billionaire standards – and is typical of those who may not own a giant yacht but make up for it with private jets.

Co-founder of Microsoft, he retired in 2020 to manage the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest charity, with an endowment of $50 billion.

In the 1990s, Gates built Xanadu – named after the vast fictional estate in Orson Welles’ “Citizen Kane” – at a cost of $127 million in Medina, Washington. The giant home covers 6,131 square meters, with a 23-car garage, a 20-person cinema and 24 bathrooms. He also owns at least five other dwellings in Southern California, the San Juan Islands in Washington state, North Salem, New York, and New York City, as well as a horse farm , four private jets, a seaplane and “a collection” of helicopters .

We estimated his annual footprint at 7,493 metric tons of carbon, mostly from a lot of flying.

The environmentally minded tech CEO

South African-born Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX, has a surprisingly low carbon footprint despite being the world’s second-richest person, with $177 billion – and he seems intent on setting an example for other billionaires .

He doesn’t own a superyacht and says he doesn’t even take vacations .

We calculated a relatively modest carbon footprint for him in 2018, thanks to his eight houses and one private jet. This year, his carbon footprint would be even lower because in 2020 he sold all of his houses and promised to divest the rest of his worldly possessions .

While his personal carbon footprint is still hundreds of times higher than that of an average person, he demonstrates that the superrich still have choices to make and can indeed lower their environmental impact if they so choose.

His estimated footprint from the assets we looked at was 2,084 tons in 2018.

The value of naming and shaming

The aim of our ongoing research is to get people to think about the environmental burden of wealth.

While plenty of research has shown that rich countries and wealthy people produce far more than their share of greenhouse gas emissions, these studies can feel abstract and academic, making it harder to change this behavior.

[ Like what you’ve read? Want more? Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter .]

We believe “shaming” – for lack of a better word – superrich people for their energy-intensive spending habits can have an important impact, revealing them as models of overconsumption that people shouldn’t emulate.

Newspapers, cities and local residents made an impact during the California droughts of 2014 and 2015 by “drought shaming” celebrities and others who were wasting water, seen in their continually green lawns . And the Swedes came up with a new term – “ flygskam ” or flying shame – to raise awareness about the climate impact of air travel.

Climate experts say that to have any hope of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, countries must cut their emissions in half by 2030 and eliminate them by 2050.

Asking average Americans to adopt less carbon-intensive lifestyles to achieve this goal can be galling and ineffective when it would take about 550 of their lifetimes to equal the carbon footprint of the average billionaire on our list.

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More signs point to human error, not global warming, in sicilian superyacht sinking.

Prosecutors in Italy are even investigating potential manslaughter charges relating to the maritime calamity.

Before the dust had settled — and before all presumed victims had been recovered — press organizaitons were quick to link the sinking on Monday of a superyacht that was moored off the coast of Sicily on global warming.

Despite those attempts, by Friday it appeared increasingly likely that the principal culprit in the capsizing of the Bayesian , which has so far claimed six lives, was not climate change but human error. 

Italian officials do believe that a sudden, pre-dawn storm that included a waterspout triggered the sequence of events that led to the sinking of the luxury ship, which was crewed by 10 people and had 12 passengers on board.

On Wednesday divers recovered five bodies from the capsized ship. On Thursday they recovered the body of 59-year-old British billionaire high-tech businessman, Mike Lynch. The owner of the yacht, Angela Bacares, survived. Ms. Bacares was Mr. Lynch’s wife.

Sky News reported that some of the victims were found in their cabins.

Still missing as of Friday were six people including Mr. Lynch’s 18-year–old daughter Hannah; Morgan Stanley’s international chairman, Jonathan Bloomer; and Mr. Bloomer’s wife, Judy.

Closed-circuit video footage obtained from a bar on shore showed fierce winds buffeting the Bayesian and its signature mast, which at 237 feet long was said to be the world’s second tallest mast. By the end of that video, less than two minutes long, the mast is no longer visible and the ship appears to have sunk. It is now sitting on its side on the seabed 164 feet below the surface of the water.

Italian yacht manufacturer Perini Navi built the 183-foot, $39 million British-flagged vessel in 2008. The chief executive of Italian Sea Group, which includes Perini Navi, put the blame for the ship’s capsizing squarely on the crew. 

Giovanni Costantino told Reuters that crew members made the “incredible mistake” of not being prepared for Monday’s storm, which was included in the relevant shipping forecasts. “The boat suffered a series of indescribable, unreasonable errors. The impossible happened on that boat … but it went down because it took on water. From where, the investigators will tell,” Mr. Costantino said.

Prosecutors in Italy are even investigating potential manslaughter charges relating to the superyacht’s sinking.

By Mr. Costantino’s reckoning, with severe thunderstorms about to bear down on the port of Porticello, located east of Palermo on Sicily’s north coast, the passengers should have been summoned from their cabins to assemble at a designated safety point. Crew should have pulled up the ship’s anchor and “doors and hatches should have been closed, and the keel should have been lowered to increase stability, among other safety measures,” he said. 

Mr. Constantino told Reuters that the Bayesian had plied the waters for more than 16 years without incident and had encountered weather that was more severe than the storm that moved eastward across the Mediterranean Sea earlier this week. 

Nevertheless, news organizations including CNN and the Guardian have made much of a statement by the head of the Italian Meteorological Society to the effect that higher than normal sea temperatures can bring “an enormous quantity of energy” for storms. 

The waters of the Mediterranean around Sicily are now hovering around 86 degrees Fahrenheit, which is about three degrees above average. However, it is widely known that Italy, surrounded by the sea on three sides, is prone to severe summer storms. This summer torrential rains have impacted northern Italy, but August in southern Italy is widely known for its thunderstorm activity. 

As Italian investigators continue to probe exactly why and how the sleek yacht sank so rapidly, the inclement weather at the time will undoubtedly play a role — as will the crew’s response to it, or lack thereof.

Palermo Today reported that the Italian prosecutor’s office is now reviewing the actions of the ship’s captain, 51-year-old James Cutfield, as well as first officer, Matthew Griffith, 22. Mr. Cutfield was already grilled this week by local police for two hours, according to other Italian reports.

Mr. Grant, a California native who has written for many major newspapers including France-Soir and the New York Times and worked in television at Paris (France24) and Tel Aviv (i24news), is now based in Athens as a staff reporter and editor of The New York Sun.

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Using AI to link heat waves to global warming

Researchers at Stanford and Colorado State University have developed a rapid, low-cost approach for studying how individual extreme weather events have been affected by global warming. Their method, detailed in a Aug. 21 study in Science Advances , uses machine learning to determine how much global warming has contributed to heat waves in the U.S. and elsewhere in recent years. The approach proved highly accurate and could change how scientists study and predict the impact of climate change on a range of extreme weather events. The results can also help to guide climate adaptation strategies and are relevant for lawsuits that seek to collect compensation for damages caused by climate change.

"We've seen the impacts that extreme weather events can have on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems," said study lead author Jared Trok, a PhD student in Earth system science at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. "To design effective solutions, we need to better understand the extent to which global warming drives changes in these extreme events."

Trok and his co-authors trained AI models to predict daily maximum temperatures based on the regional weather conditions and the global mean temperature. For training the AI models, they used data from a large database of climate model simulations extending from 1850 to 2100. But once the AI models were trained and verified, the researchers used the actual weather conditions from specific real-world heat waves to predict how hot the heat waves would have been if the exact same weather conditions occurred but at different levels of global warming. They then compared these predictions at different global warming levels to estimate how climate change influenced the frequency and severity of historical weather events.

Case studies and beyond

The researchers first put their AI method to work analyzing the 2023 Texas heat wave, which contributed to a record number of heat-related deaths in the state that year. The team found that global warming made the historic heat wave 1.18 to 1.42 degrees Celsius (2.12 to 2.56 F) hotter than it would have been without climate change. The researchers also found that their new technique accurately predicted the magnitude of record-setting heat waves in other parts of the world, and that the results were consistent with previously published studies of those events.

Based on this, the researchers used the AI to predict how severe heat waves could become if the same weather patterns that caused previous record-breaking heat waves instead occurred under higher levels of global warming. They found that events equal to some of the worst heat waves in Europe, Russia, and India over the past 45 years could happen multiple times per decade if global temperatures reach 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is currently approaching 1.3 C above pre-industrial levels.

"Machine learning creates a powerful new bridge between the actual meteorological conditions that cause a specific extreme weather event and the climate models that enable us to run more generalized virtual experiments on the Earth system," said study senior author Noah Diffenbaugh, the Kara J Foundation Professor and professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. "AI hasn't solved all the scientific challenges, but this new method is a really exciting advance that I think will get adopted for a lot of different applications."

The new AI method addresses some limitations of existing approaches -- includingthose previously developed at Stanford -- by using actual historical weather data when predicting the effect of global warming on extreme events. It does not require expensive new climate model simulations because the AI can be trained using existing simulations. Together, these innovations will enable accurate, low-cost analyses of extreme events in more parts of the world, which is crucial for developing effective climate adaptation strategies. It also opens up new possibilities for fast, real-time analysis of the contribution of global warming to extreme weather.

The team plans to apply their method to a wider range of extreme weather events and refine the AI networks to improve their predictions, including using new approaches to quantify the full range of uncertainty in the AI predictions.

"We've shown that machine learning is a powerful and efficient new tool for studying the impact of global warming on historical weather events," said Trok. "We hope that this study helps promote future research into using AI to improve our understanding of how human emissions influence extreme weather, helping us better prepare for future extreme events."

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Journal Reference :

• Jared T. Trok, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Frances V. Davenport, Noah S. Diffenbaugh. Machine learning–based extreme event attribution . Science Advances , 2024; 10 (34) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl3242

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The Hottest Commodity at the U.S. Open? Shade.

The tennis tournament, like the rest of New York City, is adapting to climate change.

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By Hilary Howard

As New York City contends with rising heat and unpredictable storms because of climate change, so does its marquee tennis tournament, the U.S. Open.

Weather has long been a wild card for outdoor sporting events. But global warming is forcing tennis officials to make lasting changes to the tournament to protect spectators and athletes.

“I’m checking in with the weather more than I care to admit,” said Jake Garner, the tournament referee, who oversees all officiating matters, including the daily schedule of play.

In 2021, remnants from Hurricane Ida delayed matches and caused flooding , but extreme heat has been the more common threat. Last year, several days in September climbed into the 90s, and during a quarterfinal match, a former champion , Daniil Medvedev, issued a dire warning about the conditions into a nearby camera : “One player is gonna die, and they’re gonna see.”

Last year’s heat prompted tournament officials to find a new purpose for the retractable roofs over the tournament’s main venues, the Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong Stadiums. Originally designed to prevent rain delays, the roofs were used , for the first time, for shade from the sweltering sun. This year, that quick fix is now official policy .

To determine when to close the roofs, the U.S. Open relies on the WetBulb Globe Temperature , a way of measuring heat stress in direct sunlight that combines factors like wind speed and humidity. Once that temperature exceeds 86 degrees, the roofs will partially close. This is also when a 10-minute break will kick in for players during matches.

“Shade is an imperative part of the discussion,” said Daniel Zausner, the chief operating officer for the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, the sprawling complex in Queens that is home to the U.S. Open. “Like the rest of the city, we are trying to stay ahead of the curve.”

The same could be said for the entire world of athletics, said Madeleine Orr , an assistant professor of sport ecology at the University of Toronto and the author of the book “Warming Up: How Climate Change is Changing Sport.”

While some organizers of sporting events are taking steps against rising temperatures, the dangers of training and competing in extreme heat are pervasive, Dr. Orr said.

Just this month in the United States, she said, several high-school football players died in separate incidents from heat exposure during practice, including a 15-year-old who collapsed in Virginia when the heat index was approaching 98 degrees. “It’s 100 percent preventable,” she said. “We need to educate people; it takes 30 minutes for heat illness to become catastrophic.”

The key to navigating climate change and outdoor athletics is scheduling, Dr. Orr said, from shifting entire sports seasons to cooler parts of the year to moving individual games and practices to later or earlier in the day. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar, for example, was delayed until November, when it was cooler, and provided air-conditioning in open-air stadiums . “All sports will need to have that conversation,” Dr. Orr said.

A shift to cooler parts of the day could bode well for the U.S. Open’s popular night sessions , which begin this year on Monday.

Day matches, which start between 11 a.m. and noon and take place throughout the afternoon, can be a challenge for players and spectators, especially on the outer courts, which lack shade. During a qualifying match on a mild 76-degree day this week, many fans were using their own umbrellas and hats with protective flaps to stay out of the sun.

After that match, Margarita Meyendorff, 77, a writer from High Falls, N.Y., recuperated under a tree on the grounds. “The middle of the day is difficult,” she said. “I don’t know how these people play in this heat.”

Since 2018, when a stretch of 90-plus days at the U.S. Open forced five male players to retire from their matches with heat-related illnesses in one day alone, tournament officials have been making improvements to navigate the elements. To start with, they hired the weather technology company Tomorrow.io , which predicts the impact of weather down to individual courts.

“We had traditionally relied on radar data from La Guardia Airport,” Mr. Zausner said. “But it could be sunny there, and raining here.” Throughout the tournament, officials have a daily meeting with the service, which counts the United States Air Force and the airline JetBlue among its clients.

For overheated players, every court on site has a designated cooling room at most a court away. Players are also provided with ice-packed towels and devices that blow cold air.

Units for monitoring the WetBulb Globe Temperature are in the tennis center’s four major stadiums, and are placed “as close to the court as we can get without impeding play,” Mr. Garner said.

The WetBulb concept was first applied to marathon runners who had started to get heat-related illnesses because of high humidity, even when it was not extremely hot outside, said Dr. Melissa Leber, the director of player medical services for the U.S. Open. Dr. Leber’s team advises athletes about proper hydration, including electrolyte replacement.

“A lot of the heat illness we see, cramping, exhaustion, has to do with an overabundance of water,” Dr. Leber said. “So we carry sodium packets.” There is also messaging in the locker rooms for players to monitor the color of their urine, she said.

For spectators, a row of trees has been planted between two of the major stadiums, with more trees being added every year, Mr. Zausner said. There are also air-conditioned first-aid stations, misting machines and occasional free giveaways of hand-held fans, and over the past two years, the number of water stations across the grounds has doubled, Mr. Zausner said. In Ashe, there are thermal cameras at every level, he added, because “heat does rise and gets trapped under the roof.”

Dr. Leber emphasized that spectators should take the heat just as seriously as the athletes. So far, there has not been an uptick in heat-related illnesses among fans, said Connor Fitzpatrick, the vice president of CrowdRx , a live-event medical services company that is on-site during the tournament.

But spectators who get mesmerized by long rallies should not sit in the same place for too long, especially if it’s in the sun, Dr. Orr added. “When you have a heat stroke, your heart is working way too hard to move blood around the body and specifically, to move blood to the skin, because that’s what allows you to sweat,” she said. So it is important to move to keep the blood circulating.

“Walk to the concourse, stand under a tree, have some water. And bring a hat — it’s your own shade machine.”

Hilary Howard is a Times reporter covering how the New York City region is adapting to climate change and other environmental challenges. More about Hilary Howard

Monday briefing: Trump-Harris debate; Israel and Hezbollah attacks; deadly mosquito virus in Massachusetts; cow stomachs; and more

Catch up in minutes with these 7 stories..

Donald Trump suggested he might skip a debate with Vice President Kamala Harris .

• What to know: The debate is set for Sept. 10 on ABC. But Trump criticized the network on social media yesterday, as he has struggled to adapt to Harris being the Democratic candidate.
• Zooming out: Harris has increased her lead in national polls and gained ground in some swing states . Her campaign says it has raised $540 million since last month. (See megadonors here .)
• Other news: Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign Friday and endorsed Trump. Follow updates here .

Israel and Hezbollah escalated attacks over the weekend.

• What happened? Israel said it launched a preemptive strike on “thousands” of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and the Iran-backed militant group fired rockets into Israel.
• Bigger picture: This was the heaviest fighting over Israel’s northern border since the war in Gaza began in October, raising tensions in the region. But it stopped short of all-out war .

Three people died in a mass stabbing in Germany.

• What to know: A knife-wielding attacker stabbed victims in the neck at a festival in the western city of Solingen on Friday night. Eight people were wounded.
• The latest: A Syrian man is in custody, authorities said yesterday. The Islamic State claimed responsibility, and German prosecutors said terrorism was the suspected motive .

Italy opened a manslaughter investigation into the Sicily yacht sinking.

• The latest: Authorities said Saturday they had not identified a suspect in the deaths of seven people aboard a superyacht that sank last week in a violent storm .
• The victims: The final body recovered was 18-year-old Hannah Lynch , officials said Friday. She was the daughter of British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch , who also died.

Some Massachusetts towns are urging people to stay inside at night.

• Why? There is an outbreak of a rare but deadly disease spread by mosquitoes, which are more active from dusk till dawn. About 30% of people who get Eastern equine encephalitis die.
• Where it’s happening: Towns near Boston. A man in his 80s has the first confirmed case this year. Mosquito season has grown longer in New England because of climate change.

Astronauts stuck in space have a new plan to get home.

• What is it? The Starliner crew will return in rival SpaceX’s Dragon capsule in February, NASA said Saturday. The two astronauts have been on the International Space Station since June.
• What it means: It’s a devastating blow for Boeing, which had insisted its Starliner spacecraft was safe even though it experienced problems on its way to the ISS.

Scientists are trying to re-engineer cows’ stomachs.

• Why? To eliminate the animal’s methane emissions. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and cows burp up a lot of it — contributing to about 4% of global warming.
• What’s the plan? To genetically engineer the microbes in cows’ stomachs. Scientists in California want to create a probiotic pill that could transform a cow’s microbiome from birth .

And now … a man who switched to a flip phone improved his life dramatically . Plus: How to save your most precious voicemails .

Want to catch up quickly with “The 7” every morning? Download The Post’s app and turn on alert notifications for The 7 or sign up for the newsletter .

This superyacht hot spot for the uber-wealthy is heating up — and becoming more dangerous

T he storm that sank the “Bayesian,” a luxury yacht anchored off the Sicily coast, was sudden, violent and deadly — and scientists say it may be a warning of what’s to come as global warming fuels more extreme weather in the Mediterranean.

The superyacht, which was carrying 22 people, sank in the early hours of Monday morning, near the port of Porticello, claiming at least five lives . Rescue operations are still ongoing, hampered by the difficulties of reaching the vessel, which is resting on the sea floor approximately 165 feet deep.

The incident has shocked many. The Mediterranean, prized for its crystal clear, tranquil waters, is a prime summer destination for the very wealthy and their superyachts.

But these waters can still be dangerous — one of the reasons thousands of people die every year trying to migrate across it — and experts say it’s only becoming more so as human-caused climate change warms the sea, whipping up stronger and more intense storms.

The reasons for the sinking of the Bayesian are still being investigated. “It was dark and no images are available,” said Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society.

But many believe the yacht was struck by a waterspout — one of several types of tornadoes. The coast guard reported the yacht was struck by a tornado, and a waterspout was reported to the European Severe Weather Database around the same time. Storms that day resulted in at least two dozen waterspout reports across Italy.

Waterspouts are narrow spinning columns of air below a thunderstorm which happen over water, and thrive on heat and humidity.

Most waterspouts are fairly weak “with a few seconds of strong, gusty winds before they move on or dissipate,” said Peter Inness, a meteorologist at the University of Reading. “But some can be much stronger.”

There aren’t huge amounts of data about waterspouts as they often happen unobserved out at sea, but there is evidence ocean temperatures can affect them. A study by University of Barcelona scientists, which was focused on Spain’s Balearic Islands, found waterspouts are more likely when the ocean is very warm.

However, drawing a link between climate change and more frequent or more intense waterspouts “is a step too far at the moment,” Inness said. They require several different conditions to form in addition to heat, including winds and temperature differences between the air and sea.

What is clear however, is that climate change is leading to more intense storms, some of which are fueled by warm ocean water.

And the Mediterranean is currently very, very hot.

Water temperatures around Sicily are approximately 30 degrees, Mercalli said. That’s 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) warmer than average for this time of year — an “extreme” anomaly, he told CNN.

While ocean heat is affected by natural climate fluctuations, such as El Niño, scientists are clear that it is being supercharged by human-caused global warming driven by burning fossil fuels.

When oceans are hot, they are able to inject more energy into the atmosphere. This can be converted into strong winds or rapid updrafts of air in thunderstorms, Inness said. Warm air is also able to hold more moisture, so when storms produce rain, it can be heavier and more intense.

There has been an increase in heavy thunderstorms dumping large amounts of rain, as well as downbursts — strong winds that descend from thunderstorms — in Italy and worldwide over the past few decades, Mercalli said.

The storm that hit Sicily reached the Mediterranean from the west, where it gained energy from high ocean temperatures, said Justino Martínez, a researcher at the Institute of Marine Scientists in Spain.

Spain’s Balearic Islands were particularly affected. Torrential rain last week flooded roads, forced evacuations and flight cancellations and overturned yachts moored on the popular island of Formentera.

The storm then gained more energy before reaching Italy, Martínez told CNN. In addition to the waterspout, other strong storms across Sicily brought torrential rainfall late Sunday, dumping more than 100 mm of rainfall, or 4 inches, in Brolo in less than four hours.

The Mediterranean region is on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Dubbed a climate change hot spot , it’s warming around 20% faster than the global average. And the toll is clear in the extreme weather the region is experiencing, from brutal rolling heat waves to ferocious storms bringing catastrophic flooding .

“Global warming — and specifically warming of the Mediterranean Sea — is quite likely to lead to an intensification of a number of potentially dangerous weather systems in that region,” Inness said.

Italy, surrounded by the fast-warming waters of the Mediterranean, is particularly affected. Last year, a downburst hit a ship on Lake Maggiore in northern Italy, killing four people.

The country also grappled with “ once in a century” deadly floods that killed at least 14 people in May last year, while Sicily hit 48.8 degrees Celsius (119.8 Fahrenheit) last August, breaking Europe’s temperature record.

Outside Italy, last year’s Storm Daniel, fueled by unusually warm ocean waters , claimed lives in Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria. But by far the most devastation from the storm happened in Libya.

Flash flooding killed thousands of people following a so-called medicane — a rare, hurricane-like cyclone in the Mediterranean that gains energy from warm water.

“Global warming is intensifying all extreme weather events,” Mercalli said, “with huge costs for people and society.”

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